The system bounced back this week, going 7-3 both ways for a season record of 45-34 on top 10 sells and 50-30 on top 10 buys. The system favors the strong, as it seems as the trend is that teams that are supposed to win, on a hot streak, and at home, do win at a 62% clip. Now is the time to buy, as some teams are at all time lows, and others are trying to make a playoff push, playing other teams who have mailed it in and are looking forward to next season. Here is the board for this week:
The system got hammered last week as we saw 3 teams emerge from the basement of the league in victory, in Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa and Jacksonville. That’s why they play the games, folks. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, despite what the street says. The system did another mirror, even though different teams were involved, going 4-6 on top buys and top sells, for a season record of 38-31 on top 10 sells and 43-27 on top 10 buys. You may ask why KC, who is undefeated has only the 3rd highest share price. It’s because even though the Chiefs win, and that’s the highest weight in the formula, it’s diluted by the number of games. In the other criteria in the formula, the Chiefs have been lacking, so the formula puts the Broncos and Seahawks ahead of them, despite having 1 more loss respectively. Here is the board for this week:
So far, so good! The system had a winning week again, going 6-4 on the top 10 sells and 6-4 on the top 10 buys with a couple of upsets in between by the Bears, Jets and Browns. The system is so far 34-25 on top 10 sells and 39-21 on top 10 buys. You can clearly see the trend for the Miami Dolphins, which I expect to keep sliding down as they deal with drama surrounding their organization. They are a good example of a team you should have sold in week 3, because if you’d have held on, your stock would have lost half its value by now. Here is the board for this week:
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So here we are halfway through the season, with each team playing at least half their schedule and there’s some things that we learned that we didn’t know. As with my blog from the quarter way point of the season, I will say this again: Your team is only as good as its quarterback. I think these days the games will depend on which quarterback makes the least mistakes.
Interesting Observation from the first half of 2013:
QB Nick Foles of the Eagles has only started 3 games this season and already has more TD passes than many 8 or 9 game starting quarterbacks in the NFL, including Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. The Mike Vick era in Philly may be over. Also the Case Keenum era in Houston may have begun.
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I apologize for not posting the system last week, as I am busy preparing for the Giants Fans vs Jets Fans Flag Football Scrimmage for Men’s Health Awareness, which is this Sunday! The system went even Steven in Week 7, going 5-5 on the top 10 sells and 5-5 on the top 10 buys. However, in Week 8, the system rocked, going 9-1 each way on top buys and top sells The system is so far 29-21 on top 10 sells and 33-17 on top 10 buys. We are halfway through and getting some good trending data, for instance the Jets who follow up a win with a loss. They are a good example of a volatile team that is invest on your own risk. Here is the board for this week with sortable table:
Sorry everyone, I’ve been lax with the blog posts, I am busy preparing for our QFL preseason. Well, we’re halfway through the season already, and I’m sure lots of us have been screwed in our leagues by the losses of some major offensive weapons in WR Julio Jones, WR Reggie Wayne, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Doug Martin and RB DeMarco Murray. Now we are seeing some QBs going down in Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford. This is where it pays to have good backups, with some owners taking their backups even before a K or DST. Here’s some good plays for this week:
The Panthers travel to hopeless Tampa Bay tommorrow night, where the Greg Schiano era is deteriorating by the game. With no Doug Martin and a rookie at QB, Mike Glennon, look for the Panthers D to dominate, forcing turnovers. The Panthers have the #2 scoring defense in the land, while the Bucs have the #31 scoring offense. This spells a recipe for disaster for the Bucs and good opportunity for owners looking for a strong DST. Panthers DST is a must start this week.
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The system continues to fluctuate here with the the market picking back up, going 5-5 on the top 10 sells and 7-3 on the top 10 buys. The system is so far 15-15 on top 10 sells and 19-11 on top 10 buys. The trend seems to be that the teams that are supposed to win, do win, and the teams that are supposed to lose, don’t always lose. There are factors such as the momentum and home field advantage of the teams that factor into the outlook, that’s why the top 10 sells are not always the opponents of the top 10 buys. Here is the board for this week with sortable table:
The season rolls along here as we arrive at the close of week 6 tonight with the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football. This afternoon will explore some popular football myths vs. the reality that we can relate to the season thus far.
The 12th Man
Sports fans are some of the most loyal customers that any business could have. Year after year, regardless of whether the team is good or bad, thousands fill the stands, watch on TV, listen on the radio, purchase merchandise and talk about their teams socially.
A hot topic today is the fan reaction to the Matt Schaub injury in Houston. The fans at Reliant Stadium cheered while their QB writhed on the turf with an apparent ankle injury. Fans will turn on you on the drop of a dime. The fact is that fans come to the games and spend a lot of money to watch their team. Now, if you’re a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, you’re probably coming to watch the other team. If you’re a Houston Texans fan or an Atlanta Falcons fan, you are expecting a performance by a team that is in the conversation with the elite teams in their respective conferences. Anything less feels like they are getting screwed out of their money and time. No one likes that. The fact is, is that no one is safe. Look at all the morons in New York that are asking for the Giants to bench a 2x Superbowl MVP and start looking towards the draft. Are you kidding me? Yes, football players are in fact, human. They go through the same ups and downs in their careers that everyone does. A true fan rides or dies with their teams AND its players, and never, ever cheers for an injury. Matt Schaub, after he takes off the pads, is a man with a family. How would you feel if someone cheered you getting mowed down by a taxi, while your family watched in horror? I think the Texans players and all of the players that are tweeting out about the fans in Houston, are just saying something that needs to be said.
Well, we had two of the undefeateds go down, our highest price stock did not stick to their trend of blowing out their opposition, mixed in with a few straight up underdog wins, so… The market took a hit last week, going 4-6 on the top 10 sells and 5-5 on the top 10 buys. The system is so far 10-10 on top 10 sells and 12-8 on top 10 buys, modest numbers. Here is the board for this week with a NEW sortable table :
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The Falcons and their supposed high powered offense limp into the bye this week, so if you’ve got Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White or Matt Ryan, you’ll be on the lookout for some by week replacement fodder. We’re still somewhat early in the season and getting those strange injuries, like Michael Vick‘s hamstring injury on a play in which he wasn’t hit. Here’s some good fill-ins for your team this week:
Geno Smith, QB Jets
Geno Smith‘s performance in Week 4 against the Titans may have made you sick (I know I was). However, it was a different story in Week 5 against a very bad Atlanta Falcons defense and Geno turned in a performance to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors – 80% completions, a yard shy of 200, 3 TDs and ZERO interceptions. The Jets are home to face Pittsburgh this week, but they are obviously not the same defense that we have seen in the past, you still have to worry about guys like Troy Polamalu looking to rattle and get turnovers against a rookie. A few weeks ago, this would have been a gimme game for the Steelers, but now it seems as if the Jets have rediscovered their power running attack, which is setting up the pass for Geno. Now, I wouldn’t sit a Matt Ryan for Geno Smith, but Geno is only owned in 25% of leagues, so make sure you get him while you can as he makes an excellent bye week replacement or QB2 in deep leagues.
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