Posted by & filed under Bulls & Bears.

The system bounced back this week, going 7-3 both ways for a season record of 45-34 on top 10 sells and 50-30 on top 10 buys. The system favors the strong, as it seems as the trend is that teams that are supposed to win, on a hot streak, and at home, do win at a 62% clip. Now is the time to buy, as some teams are at all time lows, and others are trying to make a playoff push, playing other teams who have mailed it in and are looking forward to next season. Here is the board for this week:

Team Share Price Change Week 11 Outlook
Arizona Cardinals 73.37 +05.92 +03.93
Atlanta Falcons 39.03 -04.66 -58.66
Baltimore Ravens 62.79 -03.48 +17.42
Buffalo Bills 49.88 +05.81 Bye
Carolina Panthers 104.20 +03.03 +59.24
Chicago Bears 74.96 -03.14 +15.47
Cincinnati Bengals 86.11 +01.56 Bye
Cleveland Browns 51.93 +00.65 -03.12
Dallas Cowboys 78.04 -01.45 +23.24
Denver Broncos 112.44 +01.74 +29.53
Detroit Lions 78.30 -06.42 +40.15
Green Bay Packers 68.50 -01.91 +36.30
Houston Texans 40.91 -04.72 +30.99
Indianapolis Colts 84.44 +03.72 +11.07
Jacksonville Jaguars 14.92 +00.10 -25.99
Kansas City Chiefs 100.66 -02.90 +40.74
Miami Dolphins 54.96 +03.83 -44.24
Minnesota Vikings 37.20 -02.30 -31.30
New England Patriots 92.91 +01.85 -14.53
New Orleans Saints 102.69 +00.10 +73.66
New York Giants 54.80 +07.02 -08.24
New York Jets 50.37 -04.84 -12.42
Oakland Raiders 50.42 +06.20 -05.60
Philadelphia Eagles 73.27 -00.03 Bye
Pittsburgh Steelers 60.05 +10.37 +08.12
San Diego Chargers 64.92 -04.54 -35.74
San Francisco 49ers 94.24 -01.65 +50.60
Seattle Seahawks 106.28 +00.10 Bye
St. Louis Rams 59.49 -02.75 -10.47
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43.15 +04.01 -25.15
Tennessee Titans 61.02 -05.42 +10.60
Washington Redskins 43.64 -03.99 -45.60
nfl bulls and bears

Sell

Kansas City Chiefs -2.90 Atlanta Falcons -4.66

The Chiefs finally took their first loss this year, and while they will make the playoffs, judging from their performance in Denver last Sunday, I think they will be going in as the 5 seed, as the Broncos will likely win their next matchup again next week. In this unique AFC conference this year, the 5 seed will likely be many games ahead of the 6th seed. So you will likely see KC rest some starters in Week 17 and maybe even 16. Sell now and reap the dividends while their price is still high. The Falcons have clearly mailed it in for this season. It’s such a shame for a team with such offensive firepower, but they could not overcome their injuries. They were 10-1 at this point last year, so I guess they will be looking forward to next season when everyone’s healthy.

Hold

Philadelphia Eagles -0.03 Seattle Seahawks +0.10

The Eagles are in the lead for their division right now, and usually turn it on for the last quarter of the season, but I’m not really sure they can run away with the division with the Giants fast approaching. Hold for now to see what happens, as they have the Cardinals, Lions and Bears still left on the schedule. The Seahawks may find themselves in the same situation as the Chiefs. They are 3 games ahead of the 3rd seed, Carolina. Depending on what happens with their big, big game with the Saints next week and the Saints 2 games against the Panthers left, they may also rest at the end of the season.

Buy

Cincinnatti Bengals +1.56 Green Bay Packers -1.91

I have seen no indication from the Ravens that they will sneak in and steal this division, so I think the Bengals will be jockeying for the coveted 2nd seed and first round bye with the Colts and Patriots. Buy the Bengals now as they have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way and I wouldn’t be surprised if they steal that spot away from the Patriots at the end. Buy the Packers now at their season low price, with Aaron Rodgers on the verge of return. Only a game back of the division leader, they are still in contention for the division and I think they may make a run here to at least be in the conversation for a wild card, where there currently are a log jam of teams.

Week 7 Strong Buys

San Francisco 49ers +50.60
Buy the 49ers this week, who after losing a heartbreaker in New Orleans will be out for blood against the hapless Redskins, who can’t seem to do anything until the game is already out of reach.
Kansas City Chiefs +40.74
Buy the Chiefs this week, who absolutely must win this game to stay in contention for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the division. I think they bounce back here, but immediately sell afterwards as they have Denver again next week.

Week 6 Strong Sells

Miami Dolphins - -44.24
The Dolphins got lucky last week in hosting a Chargers team who does not play well on the road to begin with and are dreadful when traveling to the east coast. This is a team still in disarray and I think the Panthers with their defense led by Charles Johnson and Luke Kuechly will eat up the depleted offensive line of the Dolphins.
New York Jets - -12.42
Even though the Jets are due for a win based on their historic W-L-W-L trend, I think the Jets always end up losing in the big spots, such as this one, where Rex Ryan returns to face his former team. The Jets are horrible on the road and I think that they lose a close one with lots of playoff implications.

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