I would like to introduce a new feature on the blog, Bulls & Bears. I think the NFL is very much like the stock market in that team performance fluctuates wildy and the investment that each fans put in every week either lives up to their expectations or flops.
I use a weighted formula that gives a stock market like share price to each team based on wins, margin of victory, red zone efficiency, turnovers and penalties and an x factor, which is my ranking for these teams. Using this formula, I aim to find trends in the data and share them with you to help you decide whether to buy or sell.
|Team||Share Price||Change||Week 4 Outlook|
|Green Bay Packers||70.77||-14.57||Bye|
|Kansas City Chiefs||95.87||-2.53||+84.70|
|New England Patriots||91.40||+4.02||+32.80|
|New Orleans Saints||96.96||+7.56||+21.90|
|New York Giants||30.67||-7.90||-69.70|
|New York Jets||65.73||+6.59||-1.30|
|San Diego Chargers||61.41||-3.70||-17.29|
|San Francisco 49ers||49.62||-14.80||-1.18|
|St. Louis Rams||46.85||-14.47||+6.18|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||46.83||-7.86||+0.49|
St. Louis Rams -11.47
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.16
If you haven’t heard already, QB Josh Freeman has been benched and likely to be traded, and rookie QB Mike Glennon has been chosen to replace him. This shows that the higher ups in Tampa have mailed in the season and are looking towards the future.
The Rams are a sell based on the division they play in and their brutal upcoming schedule. They are not the worst team, but luck is not going to be kind to them this season.
San Francisco 49ers -11.50
New York Giants-10.30
In your heart, you know these teams are better than their record indicates. They are teams that have heart and somehow find a way to win in desperate situations. Fans shouldn’t panic yet.
Carolina Panthers +28.80
Baltimore Ravens +18.03
Both the Ravens and Panthers have found their old selves after having a mediocre start to the season. The Panthers have 4 very winnable games coming up against Arizona, Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The Ravens can only get better with a healthy Ray Rice as the defense is starting to come together, following the departures of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Danell Ellerbe.
Week 4 Strong Buys
Indianapolis Colts +75.01
Jacksonville. Enough said.
Kansas City Chiefs +84.7
The Chiefs, who are hard to beat at home, even when they’re not good, are 3-0 and facing the floundering Giants.
Week 4 Strong Sells
New York Giants -69.70
The Giants will come around eventually. It just won’t be this week.
Philadelphia Eagles -48.09
The Eagles, who looked so promising after drubbing the Redskins on Monday Night have fallen back to earth and now take their miserable pass defense on the road to face one of the best passing QBs this season and all time in Peyton Manning.