Posted by & filed under Bulls & Bears.

I would like to introduce a new feature on the blog, Bulls & Bears. I think the NFL is very much like the stock market in that team performance fluctuates wildy and the investment that each fans put in every week either lives up to their expectations or flops.

 

I use a weighted formula that gives a stock market like share price to each team based on wins, margin of victory, red zone efficiency, turnovers and penalties and an x factor, which is my ranking for these teams. Using this formula, I aim to find trends in the data and share them with you to help you decide whether to buy or sell.

 
Team Share Price Change Week 4 Outlook
Arizona Cardinals 47.63 -17.93 +4.51
Atlanta Falcons 69.90 -8.60 -17.80
Baltimore Ravens 79.71 +18.93 +26.55
Buffalo Bills 60.25 -3.08 -11.55
Carolina Panthers 84.39 +26.25 Bye
Chicago Bears 90.63 +2.44 +23.51
Cincinnati Bengals 77.34 -0.11 +37.78
Cleveland Browns 52.05 +20.58 -12.78
Dallas Cowboys 84.20 +13.35 +32.29
Denver Broncos 112.85 -13.80 +63.09
Detroit Lions 72.03 -0.22 -8.51
Green Bay Packers 70.77 -14.57 Bye
Houston Texans 70.31 -15.75 -30.29
Indianapolis Colts 88.82 +17.47 +75.01
Jacksonville Jaguars 22.06 +13.24 +13.51
Kansas City Chiefs 95.87 -2.53 +84.70
Miami Dolphins 95.62 +7.27 +3.10
Minnesota Vikings 44.78 -1.87 +13.88
New England Patriots 91.40 +4.02 +32.80
New Orleans Saints 96.96 +7.56 +21.90
New York Giants 30.67 -7.90 -69.70
New York Jets 65.73 +6.59 -1.30
Oakland Raiders 55.01 +3.91 +13.65
Philadelphia Eagles 54.61 -12.04 -48.09
Pittsburgh Steelers 36.35 +0.02 -8.88
San Diego Chargers 61.41 -3.70 -17.29
San Francisco 49ers 49.62 -14.80 -1.18
Seattle Seahawks 114.15 -6.55 +55.29
St. Louis Rams 46.85 -14.47 +6.18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46.83 -7.86 +0.49
Tennessee Titans 72.83 +6.88 +26.30
Washington Redskins 31.56 +2.80 -3.65
 

Sell

 
 

St. Louis Rams -11.47
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.16

 

If you haven’t heard already, QB Josh Freeman has been benched and likely to be traded, and rookie QB Mike Glennon has been chosen to replace him. This shows that the higher ups in Tampa have mailed in the season and are looking towards the future.

 

The Rams are a sell based on the division they play in and their brutal upcoming schedule. They are not the worst team, but luck is not going to be kind to them this season.

 

Hold

 
 

San Francisco 49ers -11.50
New York Giants-10.30

 

In your heart, you know these teams are better than their record indicates. They are teams that have heart and somehow find a way to win in desperate situations. Fans shouldn’t panic yet.

 

Buy

 
 

Carolina Panthers +28.80
Baltimore Ravens +18.03

 

Both the Ravens and Panthers have found their old selves after having a mediocre start to the season. The Panthers have 4 very winnable games coming up against Arizona, Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. The Ravens can only get better with a healthy Ray Rice as the defense is starting to come together, following the departures of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Danell Ellerbe.

 

Week 4 Strong Buys

 

Indianapolis Colts +75.01
Jacksonville. Enough said.

 

Kansas City Chiefs +84.7
The Chiefs, who are hard to beat at home, even when they’re not good, are 3-0 and facing the floundering Giants.

 

Week 4 Strong Sells

 

New York Giants -69.70
The Giants will come around eventually. It just won’t be this week.

 

Philadelphia Eagles -48.09
The Eagles, who looked so promising after drubbing the Redskins on Monday Night have fallen back to earth and now take their miserable pass defense on the road to face one of the best passing QBs this season and all time in Peyton Manning.

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